Argument6 第二次练笔

——题目——
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
‘A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly,’ which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.’
——正文——
It seems to be a good idea to hold a jazz music club in Monroe. According to the application there is few competitor, a good number of potential customers, what is more, they may spend considerable money here. Everything looks good, however, I find the application not so convincing.

Customers are not always that lazy. There is no clear reason that people will absolutely choose the nearer club when they want to join one. When one wise person who does be interested in jazz want to choose a jazz club, there are several feature he should consider. The price may be important, if he can totally not afford client fee of a club, he will absolutely not choose this club; How the service is is also of large importance, which makes the direct impression. People usually spend a whole weekend in his favorate club, attending club is not a frequent conduction, so, the distance between the club and customers’ home may take small part in customers’ decision.

In another aspects, whether jazz is popular is totally different thing with whether there will be customers of a new jazz club. Many people have several hobbies, but have only joint few clubs. Maybe someone just like the air of Jazz but can not play which makes him have no hopeness to join a club. There are stil many such factors. Admitted that the population does mean a considerable potential customers, The applicant does not provide even enough evidence of the population. He says over 100,000 people attended the festival, but what is the total number of local dweller? How is the attendance condition in past years? Is it clear that those who attendent this festical are all jazz fans? People always attendent a festical when is free, it brings happiness.

Let’s have a look at the nationwide study which indicates the average spending condition of jazz. There are two weak point of this. First, a nationwide study does not necessarily indicates local condition. Statisticlly, study result in a small district can be very different with a nationwide average result. The fact that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment can not applied to Monroe without specific survey. Second, there are many ways of jazz entertainment, such as books, Video Discs, Tapes, Instruments and so on. We have not seen any material about how the $1000 was spent, so, it is a vague evidence too.

In summary, without maturely discussion of possible competition, without convincing survey of the popular degree in Monroe something, if I have right, I will not make this application pass.